Advancing progress on tobacco control in low-income and middle-income countries through economic analysis.

BACKGROUND: More than 80% of the world's 1.3 billion tobacco users live in low-income and middle-income countries (LMICs), where progress to address tobacco and its harms has been slow. The perception that tobacco control detracts from economic priorities has impeded progress. The Secretariat of the WHO Framework Convention on Tobacco Control (FCTC) is leading the FCTC 2030 project, which includes technical assistance to LMICs to analyse the economic costs of tobacco use and the benefits of tobacco control. METHODS: The Secretariat of the WHO FCTC, United Nations Development Programme and WHO supported 21 LMICs between 2017 and 2022 to complete national investment cases to guide country implementation of the WHO FCTC, with analytical support provided by RTI International. These country-level cases combine customised estimates of tobacco's economic impact with qualitative analysis of socio-political factors influencing tobacco control. This paper overviews the approach, observed tobacco control advancements and learnings from 21 countries: Armenia, Cabo Verde, Cambodia, Chad, Colombia, Costa Rica, El Salvador, Eswatini, Georgia, Ghana, Jordan, Laos, Madagascar, Myanmar, Nepal, Samoa, Sierra Leone, Sri Lanka, Suriname, Tunisia and Zambia. RESULTS: Tobacco control advancements in line with investment case findings and recommendations have been observed in 17 of the 21 countries, and many have improved collaboration and policy coherence between health and economic stakeholders. CONCLUSIONS: Tobacco control must be seen as more than a health concern. Tobacco control leads to economic benefits and contributes to sustainable development. National investment cases can support country ownership and leadership to advance tobacco control.

Consumo de tabaco de liar en el País Vasco: magnitud, desigualdades socioeconómicas y evolución en el periodo 2013-2018 / Use of Roll Your Own Tobacco in the Basque Country: magnitude, socio-economic inequalities and evolution in the period 2013-2018

Fundamentos: A pesar de la reducción del número de personas fumadoras a nivel mundial, el consumo de tabaco de liar ha aumentado en los últimos años en muchos países, lo que puede frenar la tendencia descendente del hábito tabáquico. El objetivo de este trabajo fue analizar la evolución del número de personas que consumen tabaco de liar y tabaco de cualquier tipo entre 2013 y 2018 en el País Vasco y determinar si existían desigualdades socioeconómicas en su consumo. Métodos: Se realizó un estudio observacional y transversal de una muestra representativa de la población residente en el País Vasco de dieciséis a cincuenta y nueve años (n 2013=6.929 y n 2018=7.961) a partir de la Encuesta de Salud del País Vasco (años 2013 y 2018) y de la Encuesta sobre Adicciones de Euskadi (2018). Se calcularon las prevalencias de consumo habitual de tabaco en general y de tabaco de liar según diferentes variables socioeconómicas para los años 2013 y 2018, así como las razones de prevalencia para la estimación del cambio entre esos años y según las variables anteriores mediante modelos de regresión de Poisson robusto. Los análisis se estratificaron por sexo y por dos grupos de edad. RESULTADOS // La prevalencia de consumo de tabaco en general disminuyó entre 2013 (hombres=27,7% y mujeres=24,1%) y 2018 (hombres=24,1% y mujeres=18,6%), pero se mantuvo en el caso del consumo de tabaco de liar (en 2013, hombres=5,1% y mujeres=3,2%; en 2018, 5,4% y 3,5%, respectivamente). A diferencia del consumo de tabaco en general, que presentó un claro gradiente socioeconómico, el consumo de tabaco de liar fue más prevalente entre las personas jóvenes (en 2018, hombres=6,4% y mujeres=4,1%), grupo en el que el patrón por posición socioeconómica era menos evidente. Conclusiones: Considerando la persistencia en el consumo de tabaco de liar, es preciso dirigir también la lucha contra el tabaquismohacia...(AU)

Background: Despite the global reduction in smoking, the consumption of roll-your-own tobacco has increased in recent years in many countries, which may be slowing down the downward trend in smoking. The aim of this paper was to analyse the evolution of the number of people who use roll-your-own tobacco and tobacco of any type between 2013 and 2018 in the Basque Country and measure whether there were socioeconomic inequalities in its consumption. Methods: We carried out an observational and cross-sectional study of a representative sample of the population living in the Basque Country aged 16 to 59 years (n2013=6929 y n2018=7961) from the Basque Health Survey (2013 and 2018) and the Basque Addictions Survey (2018). We calculated prevalences of regular tobacco smoking in general and of roll-your-own cigarettes according to different socioeconomic variables for the years 2013 and 2018, as well as prevalence ratios for the estimation of change between these years and according to the above variables through robust Poisson regression models. We stratified analyses by sex and two age groups.Results: Overall smoking prevalence decreased between 2013 (men=27.7% and women=24.1%) and 2018 but remained the same for those who used roll-your-own tobacco (in 2013, men=5.1% and women=3.2%; in 2018=5.4% and 3.5%, respectively). In contrast to tobacco in general, which showed a clear socio-economic gradient, roll-your-own tobacco use was more prevalent among young people (in 2018, men=6.4% and women=4.1%), a group where the pattern by socio-economic status was less evident.Conclusions: Considering the persistence of roll-your-own tobacco consumption, we also should direct tobacco control towards this kind of product, and its use should be monitored and supervised, especially among young people.(AU)

Cigarette Prices and Smoking Among Youth in 16 African Countries: Evidence From the Global Youth Tobacco Survey.

INTRODUCTION: African countries have among the lowest excise taxes in the world. This paper provides new evidence on the association between cigarette prices and youth smoking in 16 African countries. AIMS AND METHODS: We use Global Youth Tobacco Survey (GYTS) cross-country data from approximately 67 500 participants. The relationship between prices and youth smoking in Africa is estimated using probit models for smoking participation and generalized linear models for conditional cigarette demand. Each model is estimated using local-brand and foreign-brand cigarette prices. RESULTS: Higher prices are associated with lower demand across African countries, for both smoking prevalence and the intensity of cigarette consumption by smokers. The estimated price elasticity of participation is -0.70 [95% CI: -1.28 to -0.12] for local-brand cigarettes and -0.71 [95% CI: -0.98 to -0.44] for foreign-brand cigarettes. The price elasticity of conditional cigarette demand is -0.44 [95% CI: -0.76 to -0.12] for local brands and -0.75 [95% CI: -0.96 to -0.53] for foreign brands. The total price elasticity of demand for youth in our sample is -1.14 for local brands and -1.46 for foreign brands. CONCLUSIONS: Higher cigarette prices significantly decrease the likelihood of smoking and decrease the intensity of cigarette consumption among African youths. Increases in the excise tax that increase the retail price of cigarettes will play an important role in reducing youth tobacco use on the continent. Governments are encouraged to increase excise taxes in order to improve public health. IMPLICATIONS: Evidence on the association between cigarette prices and youth smoking in African countries is limited. The Global Youth Tobacco Survey (GYTS) was first introduced in 1999. In 2012, the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention revised the GYTS questionnaire, which removed some questions and introduced new questions into the survey. To the best of our knowledge, there are no published estimates of the relationship between cigarette prices and demand that have used this more recent individual-level GYTS data for African countries. In conducting this analysis, we add to the limited literature on the association between cigarette prices and youth smoking in Africa.

Uncovering Philip Morris International's Fundamental Strategies for Product Placement in Thailand: Spotlighting Industry Penetration to Advance the Endgame.

BACKGROUND: Tobacco companies and their associated businesses know that placement - where one can see and purchase their products - is critical to their success. Placement is one of the four fundamental Ps of marketing along with product, price and promotion. Placement includes identifying retail locations in important places such as in shopping districts, within neighborhoods, near schools, at beaches, and in parks. In Southeast Asia, counteracting tobacco company placement strategies that result in market penetration is essential to advancing the endgame, namely ending tobacco use. However, in Southeast Asia research on the placement of tobacco products has been limited. OBJECTIVES: We undertook to analyze how Philip Morris International (PMI) through its subsidiary Philip Morris Asia Inc. (PMAI), from the time the company entered Thailand's market once it was forced open in 1990, developed its successful product placement strategies and tactics. METHODS: We examined over 4,000 PMI and PMAI internal documents using an historical, iterative and thematic approach. We analyzed the most relevant and illuminating documents, particularly those in which PMAI discussed retailer supply, retailer acceptance and retailer cooperation. RESULTS: Even before foreign tobacco brands were legally allowed to be sold in Thailand, PMAI was already doing customer research in Thailand. In 1989, PMAI conducted a study of potential Thai customers in which 24% of respondents' lack of availability (i.e., product placement) was one of the main reasons for not smoking PMI's products. Based on these findings, PMAI engaged in intensive internal efforts to address the placement barrier to gain share. PMAI placed considerable emphasis on "stimulating retail trade acceptance" by making payments to retailers who met agreed upon and contracted product sales targets. PMAI's initial successes incentivizing Thai retailers by essentially buying prime retail space for placement of their brands, to crowd out local and other foreign brands, became the foundation of what evolved into a sophisticated program to make placement highly lucrative for retailers. CONCLUSION: PMAI viewed aggressive product placement as essential to success as a new entrant in Thailand, and their product placement strategies contributed substantially to capturing a large share of the market. Therefore, endgame strategies must focus on restricting product placement through surveillance of tobacco industry legal, investment and retailer actions and through stricter tobacco retailer licensing requirements and penalties.

Tobacco Control Strategies Enrich the National Strategic Plan on Prevention and Control of Cancer in Sri Lanka.

The National Cancer Control Programme Sri Lanka is the main government organization and focal point for coordinating the national response to prevention and control of cancer activities. Present National strategic plan on Cancer Prevention and Control (2020-2024) was developed by multi-sectoral expert groups. The present strategy derives its mandate from the overarching National policy documents including the NATA Act. Strategic objectives one and two of the National Strategic Plan identified the tobacco control measures. Several databases were searched to find out the relevant literature relevant to tobacco control strategies in Sri Lanka and the rest was collected from the university libraries, experts, and key persons in the field from the legal, and health sectors. It was identified more than 200 documents relevant to tobacco control. Strong legal legislations are available for measures to reduce the demand for tobacco products. Those are Protection from exposure to tobacco smoke, regulation of the contents of tobacco products, regulation of tobacco product disclosures, packaging and labeling of tobacco products, tobacco advertising, promotion and sponsorship, licit trade in tobacco products, sales to under 21, Provision of support for economically viable alternative activities. These legislations are covering by the NATA act. New formula for tobacco taxation was submitted to the Ministry of Health. Conclusion: Strong tobacco controlling laws and legislations are available in Sri Lanka that supports achieving one and two of the strategic objectives of the National strategic plan on cancer prevention and control in Sri Lanka. Policies are needed to regularize the increased tax rates to adjust for inflation and Gross Domestic Product. WHO has categorized Sri Lanka as one of the countries which can likely achieve a decrease in tobacco smoking prevalence (30%) by 2025.

Genetic predispositions moderate the effectiveness of tobacco excise taxes.

BACKGROUND: Tobacco consumption is one of the leading causes of preventable death. In this study, we analyze whether someone's genetic predisposition to smoking moderates the response to tobacco excise taxes. METHODS: We interact polygenic scores for smoking behavior with state-level tobacco excise taxes in longitudinal data (1992-2016) from the US Health and Retirement Study (N = 12,058). RESULTS: Someone's genetic propensity to smoking moderates the effect of tobacco excise taxes on smoking behavior along the extensive margin (smoking vs. not smoking) and the intensive margin (the amount of tobacco consumed). In our analysis sample, we do not find a significant gene-environment interaction effect on smoking cessation. CONCLUSIONS: When tobacco excise taxes are relatively high, those with a high genetic predisposition to smoking are less likely (i) to smoke, and (ii) to smoke heavily. While tobacco excise taxes have been effective in reducing smoking, the gene-environment interaction effects we observe in our sample suggest that policy makers could benefit from taking into account the moderating role of genes in the design of future tobacco control policies.

Price, Income, and Affordability as the Determinants of Tobacco Consumption: A Practitioner's Guide to Tobacco Taxation.

INTRODUCTION: Tobacco product prices and consumers' income are the two major economic determinants of tobacco demand. The affordability of tobacco products is dependent on the price of tobacco products relative to consumer income. Increase in tobacco tax is expected to lead to higher price, lower affordability, and reduced consumption. Price elasticity and affordability elasticity are used in analyzing the effect of tobacco tax increases on tobacco consumption and public health. The availability of both parameters raises the question of which one to apply in policy discussions. AIMS AND METHODS: Using global data on cigarette consumption, price, income, and tobacco control measures for 169 countries over 2007-2016, this study estimated the price elasticity and affordability elasticity of cigarette consumption by country income classification using country-specific fixed effects model for panel data. RESULTS: The estimates show that the restriction of equal strength of the effects of price and income changes on tobacco consumption maintained in affordability elasticity estimation is valid for low- and middle-income countries, while it is rejected for high-income countries. CONCLUSIONS: Affordability elasticity may prove to be a useful parameter to explain and predict the sensitivity of consumers to tobacco tax and price policy changes under conditions of robust economic growth, which are more likely to be observed in countries with initial low- or middle-income setting. It can provide a reasonable benchmark for tobacco tax and price increase necessary to effectively reduce affordability and consumption of tobacco, which can form a basis for building systematic tax and price increases into the tobacco tax policy mechanism. IMPLICATIONS: Price elasticity measures the sensitivity of consumers to changes in real prices, holding real income constant. Affordability elasticity measures the sensitivity of consumers to price changes adjusted for inflation and income changes. Existing scientific literature on tobacco demand abounds in both price and affordability elasticity estimates, without providing a clear explanation of the theoretical and policy implications of using one parameter over the other. By estimating and comparing price and affordability elasticities for high-income and low-and-middle-income countries separately, this article offers a guide to the practitioners in tobacco taxation for evaluating the effectiveness of tax-induced price increases on tobacco consumption.

Asymmetric behavior of tobacco consumption in Spain across the business cycle: a long-term regional analysis.

Many theoretical and empirical studies have analyzed the relationship between the economic cycle and tobacco consumption using the GDP and unemployment rates as the key variables for measuring economic phases. However, few studies focus on the pathways that cause tobacco consumption to be linked with the economic cycle, and there are no studies analyzing the heterogeneous effects underlying this relationship across nations and regions. This article explores the relationship and its pathways in 16 Spanish regions for the period 1989-2018. To this end, we apply a Granger causality analysis based on the augmented vector autoregressive (VAR) model in levels and extra lags. This method provides more efficient and robust results than the standard VAR model, which can lead to biased results with limited samples, especially in a region-by-region analysis. The empirical results suggest that the impact of the business cycle on tobacco consumption is heterogeneous and specific to each region. In addition, although recession phases cause a decline in tobacco consumption in Spain, in line with the literature, this procyclical relationship does not occur for expansion phases in all regions. One of the main findings of this article is that in expansion phases, tobacco consumption is sensitive to GDP, while in recession phases, tobacco consumption is affected by unemployment. National and regional governments should consider these results when they develop smoking control policies because homogeneous strategies can lead to heterogeneous results. Thus, the results can be useful for policymakers dealing with tobacco control strategies.

Taxation and tobacco plain packaging effect on Saudi smokers quitting intentions in Riyadh city, Saudi Arabia.

OBJECTIVES: The current research aims to study the impact of raising tobacco tax and implementation of plain packaging on male smokers' quitting intentions in Saudi Arabia. METHODS: The study adopts a quantitative approach where close-ended questionnaires are distributed among 1,015 male participants from different regions of Riyadh city, Saudi Arabia. Bivariate analysis and logistic regression analysis are conducted using SPSS software to analyze the collected primary data. RESULTS: The study found a significant association of taxation and plain packaging on the quitting intentions of smokers. On taxation, while a considerable number of participants (46.5%) stated that they would not quit smoking if the cigarette prices increased, participants who were planning to give up smoking said it would strengthen their intention (p less than 0.001). In addition, logistic regression was performed to identify the independent predictors of quitting intention. Participants who did not want to apply the concept of plain packaging to Saudi Arabia were more likely to have quitting intention (odds ratio: 2.30 [1.61-3.28]) in comparison to those who wanted to apply the concept. CONCLUSION: Although the current price of cigarette packs reported to be very high by the participants, imposing a new higher tax may motivate smokers who had plans to quit in the near future. Plain packaging seems to be an effective new strategy in addition to tobacco taxation in Saudi Arabia, yet, more time and further research are required to assess the effectiveness of the strategy.

The effectiveness of plain packaging in discouraging tobacco consumption in Australia.

The removal of all branding and promotions from tobacco products, known as 'plain packaging', is intended to decrease tobacco consumption. Here we examine the effectiveness of Australia's plain packaging law, which coincided with a change in graphic and text health warnings, by using nationally indicative data 5 years post implementation. We measured the effect of the law on smoking prevalence, tobacco expenditure, expenditure intensity and quantity of tobacco consumed, using New Zealand as a control country in a difference-in-differences research design. We uncover a substitution effect that is robust to different specifications and control countries. In response to the policy, smokers switched from more expensive to cheaper cigarettes and reduced their overall tobacco expenditure and expenditure intensity. However, as smoking became less costly, smokers consumed more cigarettes. To discourage such substitution and to help the policy achieve its intended outcomes, policymakers should consider implementing auxiliary measures, such as taxes or price floors.

Socioeconomic inequality in tobacco expenditure in Iran: a cross-sectional analysis at national and subnational levels.

BACKGROUND: Tobacco expenditure has adverse impacts on expenditure on basic needs and resource allocation of the households. Using data from a nationally representative survey, we measured socioeconomic inequality in tobacco expenditure as the share of household budget (TEHB) and explained its main determinants among Iranian households at the national and sub-national levels. METHODS: This cross-sectional study used data from the Iranian Household Income and Expenditure Survey (IHIES), 2018. We included a total of 7649 households with tobacco expenditure more than zero in the analysis. Province-level data on the Human Development Index (HDI) was obtained from the Institute for Management Research at Radbound University. The concentration curve (CC) and the concentration index (C) were used to measure socioeconomic inequality in TEHB at national and sub-national levels. The C was decomposed to identify the factors explaining the observed socioeconomic inequality in TEHB. RESULTS: At the national level, households with at least one smoker spent more than 5% of their budget for tobacco consumption in the last month. Households from the urban areas allocated less of their budgets on tobacco products compared to rural households (4.6% vs. 5.8%). Overall, TEHB was more concentrated among the poorer households (C = 0.1423, 95% CI: - 0.1552 to - 0.1301). In other words, the distribution of TEHB was pro-poor in Iran. Pro-poor inequality in TEHB was also found in urban (C = - 0.1707, 95% CI: - 0.1998 to - 0.1516) and rural (C = - 0.1314, 95% CI: - 0.1474 to - 0.1152) areas. We also found that pro-poor inequalities were higher in Iranian provinces with low HDI. The decomposition results indicate that wealth and education were the main factors contributing to the concentration of TEHB among the poorer households. CONCLUSION: This study found that TEHB was disproportionality concentrated among poorer households in Iran. The extent of inequality in TEHB was higher in urban areas and less developed provinces. Designing and implementing tobacco control interventions to decrease the smoking prevalence and increase smoking cessation could protect worse-off households against the financial burden of tobacco spending.

Raising Tobacco Taxes: The Philippine Experience.

The 2012 Philippine Sin Tax Reform Law or Republic Act No. 10351 (RA10351) offers important lessons on tobacco taxation and tobacco control. In a span of five years, it increased the excise tax rate on cigarettes to as high as 1000% for low-priced brands. It is recognized by the international community not only because of the magnitude of the tobacco tax increase that it stipulated but also because of the challenging context within which it was achieved. This article presents the Philippine experience as a case study in pursuing bold reforms in tobacco taxation and tobacco control amidst strong opposition by the tobacco industry. It considers: 1) the key events and factors that led to successful reform of the Philippine tobacco tax system; 2) the impact of higher tobacco taxes on health and the economy; and 3) the emerging challenges in tobacco taxation in the Philippines.
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The effect of tobacco- and alcohol-control policies on household spending patterns in Kenya: An approach using matched difference in differences.

This paper examines the effect of tobacco and alcohol control policies on tobacco and alcohol consumption patterns and the evolution of crowding-out effects on other household expenditure in Kenya. The current literature on crowding-out does not provide a defensible instrumental variable for a system of demand equations. This paper uses Matched Difference in Differences (MDID) as an alternative strategy and data from two nationally representative surveys in Kenya conducted ten years apart (2005/6 and 2015/16). We find that tobacco-control policies contributed to a decrease in the proportion of tobacco-consuming households between 2005 and 2015. Alcohol-control policies were only effective in reducing the proportion of alcohol-consuming households in the bottom quartile of the expenditure distribution. Overall, tobacco-consuming households spent less on education, communication, and some food items. Alcohol-consuming households also spent less on some food items, but expenditure on transportation was the only non-food item crowded out. Tobacco and alcohol control policies, when they result in reduced consumption of these products, can increase household expenditure on human capital development in the long run.

PhenX: Vector measures for tobacco regulatory research.

The PhenX (Phenotypes and eXposures) Toolkit provides researchers with recommended standard consensus measures for use in epidemiological, biomedical, clinical and translational studies. To expand the depth and breadth of measures in the PhenX Toolkit, the National Institutes of Health and U.S. Food and Drug Administration have launched a project to identify 'Core' and 'Specialty' collections of measures recommended for human subjects studies in tobacco regulatory research (TRR). The current paper addresses the PhenX Toolkit TRR Vector specialty area and describes the 6-month process to identify high-priority, low-burden, scientifically supported consensus measures. Self-reported, interviewer-administered and observational measurements were considered, and input from the research community assisted in justifying the inclusion of 13 tobacco industry-relevant measures (mainly interviewer-administered or self-reported measures) in the PhenX Toolkit. Compared with measures of addiction or the use of tobacco products, assessments of many Vector factors are much newer and at an earlier stage of development. More work is needed to refine and validate measures of the spatial distribution of tobacco retailers, retail environment, price promotions and corporate social responsibility.

Differences in price of flavoured and non-flavoured tobacco products sold in the USA, 2011-2016.

BACKGROUND: Limited data exist on whether there is differential pricing of flavoured and non-flavoured varieties of the same product type. We assessed price of tobacco products by flavour type. METHODS: Retail scanner data from Nielsen were obtained for October 2011 to January 2016. Universal product codes were used to classify tobacco product (cigarettes, roll-your-own cigarettes (RYO), little cigars and moist snuff) flavours as: menthol, flavoured or non-flavoured. Prices were standardised to a cigarette pack (20 cigarette sticks) or cigarette pack equivalent (CPE). Average prices during 2015 were calculated overall and by flavour designation. Joinpoint regression and average monthly percentage change were used to assess trends. RESULTS: During October 2011 to January 2016, price trends increased for menthol (the only flavour allowed in cigarettes) and non-flavoured cigarettes; decreased for menthol, flavoured and non-flavoured RYO; increased for flavoured little cigars, but decreased for non-flavoured and menthol little cigars; and increased for menthol and non-flavoured moist snuff, but decreased for flavoured moist snuff. In 2015, average national prices were US$5.52 and US$5.47 for menthol and non-flavoured cigarettes; US$1.89, US$2.51 and US$4.77 for menthol, non-flavoured and flavoured little cigars; US$1.49, US$1.64 and US$1.78 per CPE for menthol, non-flavoured and flavoured moist snuff; and US$0.93, US$1.03 and $1.64 per CPE flavoured, menthol and non-flavoured RYO, respectively. CONCLUSION: Trends in the price of tobacco products varied across products and flavour types. Menthol little cigars, moist snuff and RYO were less expensive than non-flavoured varieties. Efforts to make flavoured tobacco products less accessible and less affordable could help reduce tobacco product use.

Impact of tobacco use on health and work productivity in Malaysia.

BACKGROUND: The loss of productivity arising from tobacco use in low/middle-income countries has not been well described. We sought to examine the impact of cigarette smoking on population health and work productivity in Malaysia using a recently published measure, the productivity-adjusted life year (PALY). METHODS: A life table model was constructed using published Malaysian demographic and mortality data. Our analysis was limited to male smokers due to the low smoking prevalence in females (1.1%). Male smokers aged 15-64 years were followed up until 65 years or until death. The population attributable risk, health-related quality of life decrements and relative reduction in productivity due to smoking were sourced from published data. The analysis was repeated assuming the cohorts were never smokers, and the differences in outcomes represented the health and productivity burden conferred by smoking. The cost of productivity loss was estimated based on the gross domestic product per equivalent full-time worker in Malaysia. RESULTS: Tobacco use is highly prevalent among working-age males in Malaysia, with 4.2 million (37.5%) daily smokers among men aged between 15 and 64 years. Overall, our model estimated that smoking resulted in the loss of over 2.1 million life years (2.9%), 5.5 million (8.2%) quality-adjusted life years (QALYs) and 3.0 million (4.8%) PALYs. Smoking was estimated to incur RM275.3 billion (US$69.4 billion) in loss of productivity. CONCLUSION: Tobacco use imposes a significant public health and economic burden among working-age males in Malaysia. This study highlights the need of effective public health interventions to reduce tobacco use.

Economic and environmental effects of reduction in smoking prevalence in Tanzania.

BACKGROUND: In Tanzania, strong tobacco control measures that would lead to a reduction in prevalence (consumption) have so far not been implemented due to concern about possible economic effects on gross domestic product and employment. The aim of this study is to analyse the economic effects of reducing tobacco consumption in Tanzania. METHODS: The study uses computable general equilibrium (CGE) modelling to arrive at the effects of decreasing tobacco prevalence. A full-fledged global CGE model was developed, including comprehensive details on tobacco and tobacco products/sectors using the Global Trade Analysis Program-Environment model and database. RESULTS: The results indicate that a 30% reduction in prevalence could lead to employment losses of about 20.8% in tobacco and 7.8% in the tobacco products sector. However, when compensated by increases in other sectors the overall decline in employment is only 0.5%. The decline in the economy as a whole is negligible at -0.3%. CONCLUSION: Initially, some assistance from the Tanzanian government may be needed for the displaced workers from the tobacco sector as a result of the decline in smoking prevalence. However, these results should be taken as a lower bound since the economic burden of diseases caused by tobacco may be far higher than the sectoral losses. The results do not include the health benefits of lower smoking prevalence. In addition, the revenues from higher taxes, as part of measures to decrease prevalence, would provide more fiscal space that can be used to finance assistance for displaced tobacco farmers and workers.

Modelling the impact of menthol sales restrictions and retailer density reduction policies: insights from tobacco town Minnesota.

INTRODUCTION: Tobacco control policies focused on the retail environment have the potential to reduce tobacco use and tobacco-related health disparities through increasing direct and indirect costs. Recently, national and subnational governments have begun to restrict the sale of menthol products and reduce tobacco retailer density. METHODS: We developed an agent-based model to project the impact of menthol cigarette sales restrictions and retailer density reduction policies for six types of communities and three priority populations. During each simulated day, agents smoke cigarettes, travel in the community and make purchase decisions-whether, where and which product type to purchase-based on a combination of their own properties and the current retail environment. RESULTS: Of the policies tested, restricting all cigarette sales or menthol cigarette sales to tobacco specialty shops may have the largest effect on the total (direct and indirect) costs of purchasing cigarettes. Coupling one of these policies with one that establishes a minimum distance between tobacco retailers may enhance the impact. Combining these policies could also make the costs of acquiring cigarettes more equal across communities and populations. DISCUSSION: Our simulations revealed the importance of context, for example, lower income communities in urban areas begin with higher retailer density and may need stronger policies to show impact, as well as the need to focus on differential effects for priority populations, for example, combinations of policies may equalise the average distance travelled to purchase. Adapting and combining policies could enhance the sustainability of policy effects and reduce tobacco use.

Tobacco Industry Promotions and Pricing After Tax Increases: An Analysis of Internal Industry Documents.

BACKGROUND: Increasing tobacco taxes, and through them, prices, is an effective public health strategy to decrease tobacco use. The tobacco industry has developed multiple promotional strategies to undercut these effects; this study assessed promotions directed to wholesalers and retailers and manufacturer price changes that blunt the effects of tax and price increases. METHODS: We reviewed tobacco industry documents and contemporaneous research literature dated 1987 to 2016 to identify the nature, extent, and effectiveness of tobacco industry promotions and price changes used after state-level tobacco tax increases. RESULTS: Tobacco companies have created promotions to reduce the effectiveness of tobacco tax increases by encouraging established users to purchase tobacco in lower-tax jurisdictions and sometimes lowering manufacturer pricing to "undershift" smaller tax increases, so that tobacco prices increased by less than the amount of the tax. CONCLUSIONS: Policymakers should address industry efforts to undercut an effective public health intervention through regulating minimum prices, limiting tobacco industry promotions, and by enacting tax increases that are large, immediate, and result in price increases. IMPLICATIONS: Tobacco companies view excise tax increases on tobacco products as a critical business threat. To keep users from quitting or reducing tobacco use in response to tax increases, they have shifted manufacturer pricing and developed specific promotions that encourage customers to shop for lower-taxed products. Health authorities should address tobacco industry efforts to undercut the effects of taxes by regulating prices and promotions and passing large and immediate tax increases.